Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 22.681760 24.662407 26.796576 29.277314 32.094492 35.209521 38.935488
2026-01-18 19.321304 22.012763 25.114907 28.995315 33.777494 39.557099 47.195302
2026-01-25 17.116678 20.188328 23.913467 28.849102 35.351789 43.831253 56.091665
2026-02-01 15.562347 18.861838 23.029037 28.817635 36.889218 48.145072 65.833548
2026-02-08 14.327253 17.751098 22.221201 28.681267 38.140219 52.143718 75.925416
2026-02-15 13.322023 16.812589 21.499502 28.508413 39.224474 55.978695 86.609613
2026-02-22 12.479345 16.000287 20.844313 28.309796 40.177415 59.694110 98.003008
2026-03-01 11.807493 15.357408 20.350871 28.264809 41.317796 63.864273 111.410743
2026-03-08 11.223827 14.786860 19.900095 28.213874 42.406053 68.099084 126.283242
2026-03-15 10.946104 14.629698 20.036600 29.089125 45.175192 75.983942 152.260604
2026-03-22 10.413924 14.057474 19.490302 28.776209 45.759848 79.666638 169.570383
2026-03-29 9.994983 13.625713 19.124969 28.722534 46.802661 84.502962 192.205416
2026-04-05 9.660022 13.311315 18.937500 28.986233 48.557147 91.467030 225.584652
2026-04-12 9.244576 12.849226 18.481088 28.731685 49.254956 96.214557 255.201630
2026-04-19 8.887267 12.457081 18.110889 28.595781 50.179315 101.779591 292.133896
2026-04-26 8.579458 12.125073 17.816088 28.567746 51.327962 108.256770 338.657397
2026-05-03 8.277529 11.785341 17.484054 28.434133 52.221684 114.319540 389.867405
2026-05-10 7.992384 11.457514 17.150295 28.263763 53.005721 120.328289 448.387552
2026-05-17 7.723771 11.143078 16.819570 28.067681 53.701069 126.317653 515.708927
2026-05-24 7.497458 10.887329 16.575778 28.023285 54.758965 133.846493 606.461321
2026-05-31 7.285134 10.644610 16.340040 27.972981 55.797130 141.718989 717.209435
2026-06-07 7.217355 10.641322 16.533979 28.837658 59.341890 160.025832 976.540224
2026-06-14 6.990380 10.355886 16.194187 28.528542 59.709495 166.511963 1138.466743